Imagine that you are playing in a $10 buy-in 9-player SNG. The payout structure is such that 1st place will get 50% of the price pool (or $45), 2nd place will get 30% ($27), and 3rd place will get 20% (or $18). (To learn more about Sit & Go, check out this article on pot odds poker.)
Now imagine that you are fortunate enough to be one of the last 4 players remaining. Not only that, you have the second biggest chip stake at 2,000 chips. The chip leader has 7,000 chips. And the other two players have 10 chips each.
Consider this scenario. The blinds are 50/100 and you happen to be in the big blind and the chip leader is in the small blind.
The other two player folds and the chip leader goes all in on you.
He accidentally turns over his cards as he was pushing his chips into the middle and you can see that all he has is a seven deuce offsuit.
You look down at your hand and see that you have AK suited. According to the poker odds, your AK should win versus his 72 about 70% of the time. So clearly, you are way ahead.
Should you call?
This is where it gets weird. If you’re goal is to win the sit and go then you should definitely call. However, even though calling would allow you to win the sit & go tournament most often, it will actually cause you to lose A LOT of money.
The most profitable play, by far, is to fold.
Here’s why.
Because the other two players have such short stacks (only 10 chips each), they are almost guaranteed to be knocked out. This means that just by waiting a few more hands, you will pretty much be guaranteed the $27 prize for 2nd place. Not only that, but once the short stacks are out of the picture, you still have a fair shot to win 1st place.
So by folding, you make an automatic profit of $27 and still have a chance to fight for 1st place.
By calling the chip leader’s shove you are only risking that $27 and giving yourself a 30% chance to get knocked out and win nothing. The benefit of having the best hand and having a chance to double your chip stack is actually very slight and is not nearly enough to compensate for the risk that you are taking.
There is actually solid math behind this reasoning that can prove why calling is such a bad idea.
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